Pillow 2.0

I am putting a business plan together at the moment.  The current draft is labelled Version 1.2.  I fully intend to publish it at version 2.0 so as to gain speedy approval.

If you don’t already read Jeff Nolan you should.  His recent posts on “Bubble 2.0 got me smiling.  Bubble 2.0?  Try Bubble 144.0, (I am trying not to be gross).

Technology is not new – it has been around since man.  Investing is not new either.  As long as there has been a means of trading intangible “promises” such as stocks and futures (and in my country this goes back to at least the 16th century but apparently there is some evidence of commodities futures trading in China 6,000 years ago), there has been the prospect of a decent bubble, driven by human greed, and a propensity to follow the pack.

Jeff points out that Web 2.0 stocks are blissfully insulated from most of the current de-stabilisers in the economy (US sub-prime lending, US housing prices, global oil prices, the “end” of private equity leveraged buyouts, rising interest rates etc).   But all these factors affect investor confidence and as soon as the markets’ herd mentality decides that a bubble is about to burst then burst it will.

Of course, what we learnt from Bubble 143.0 was that is was not the end of tech.  It was merely a shake-out where the strong survived (and thrived) and the www.snakeoil.com salesmen perished.

The other thing we learnt is that the bubble lasted years longer than most market commentators forecast, including perhaps most famously, Alan Greenspan in 1995.  As I recall the bubble seemed to last forever.  Stock values of companies with little more than a domain name were valued in the millions, and the old economy was “dying”.

I don’t plan to call the end of the current rise in stocks, and in particular, tech stocks.  I do have one friend who always points to a judder before a fall, and the main markets are certainly juddering right now.  Whether they crash, steady, or continue the current bull run remains to be seen, but as far as tech stocks are concerned, I reckon there has been too much money invested in Web 2.0 and a shake-out is inevitable.  But this does not mean that this will necessarily happen any time soon.

Furthermore, will the “old tech economy” see a resurgence?  I mean, there are still shops on my high street.

I’m off to sleep now on my new pillow 2.0 (memory foam) purchased from a high street store named IKEA.

One Response to “Pillow 2.0”

  1. francis carden Says:

    First, throw the business plan over my way, I’ll vet it for ya 😉

    Second on the “hype” cycle (yes, I think there’s a hype cycle of hype cycles). Funny story to show the realities of what tech can do in “retail” for a state-of-the-art tech company!

    Went into an Apple store to DROP $3800 notes on an Apple Pro and Final Cut for my son, who’s a budding Director. The sales guys are great and pretty technical but that doesn’t help when:

    1. they don’t have the machine in stock, or in the store.
    2. they tell me to go check out the other stores (I had to tell them to do it for me)
    3. they had to phone around the other stores (no tech)
    4. they told me to order from the web site (which showed 3 week delivery)
    5. they told I could call the store everyday to see if they had any in and reserve it (no reserve to email notification)
    6. they only get deliveries mon-fri and this was sat
    7. they had no clue when they would get the next mac book pro delivery. NO CLUE.
    8. I told my son to call the store the very next morning (it was Sunday but I was skeptical) and miraculously they had one in stock.

    This was my first Apple PC purchase ever so that was not pleasant. The fact that some system, somewhere must have known where all the MAC BOOK deliveries were and whom they were coming to doesn’t help if no-one can access it. 20 sales people in the apple store and we had to manually call in to check every day!

    Now, we got what we wanted within 24 hours BUT my point is, with ALL the technology in the world supposedly linking everything (manufacturing / sales etc.,) together, the truth is, in 2007 nothing has changed.

    Apple are not the exception, this is the rule. 20 years ago, when you’d buy anything in the store, they normally had it in stock *or* could tell you EXACTLY when you get it.

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