I’ve just downloaded the Gartner Top End User Predictions for 2010. The very first one jumps on the Cloud/SaaS/Virtualisation bandwagon and gives it a whacking great crack of the whip.
“By 2012, 20% of businesses will own no IT assets”. This is a stunner. On closer inspection Gartner means hardware assets, not software, but even so, can we really believe this?
I will be happy to stand corrected. I think that, supported by a very compelling business case, most enterprises are likely to head towards delegating responsibility for application development and support, and hardware procurement, configuration and management to external organisations. But haven’t we seen all this hype before? Consolidation of end user computing resources within the enterprise never really took off, did it? Enterprises have so much invested in existing hardware and systems that I can’t see any, large ones at least, making so much headway in such a short space of time.
I expect the vast majority of larger enterprises, even the ones trying to aggressively adopt Cloud et al, to be living with legacy on-premise systems for at least another 10 years. Am I a Luddite?